April News Roundup

IOL: WHO Issues More Pandemic Estimates
The WHO recently felt the need to bombard us with yet another set of potential pandemic infection and death rates. I have to say that there have been so many guesstimates in this regard, that I truly believe the sheer volume of predictions and statistics actually detracts from the overall message and traction it likely has in the public eye. Nonetheless, the latest numbers to come from the WHO certainly look ominous. Over 1 billion people could get infected and 2-7 million would die according to the WHO's most recent data.

"The next pandemic may cause very high morbidity and mortality in a few weeks. It could cause one billion cases and two to seven million deaths"

IHT: Qinghai Strain Continues to Spread, Vigilance Key To Averting Pandemic
The Qinghai strain of avian bird flu represents one small mutation in the virus, and the Qinghai strain continues to move across the globe. The Qinghai strain has a mutation known as 'PB2 E627K' which essentially enables the virus to grow in cooler temperatures. This is an important mutation because this mutation makes growing the virus in a human nose possible because our noses are cooler in temperature than a birds' intestine. Meanwhile scientists remain hopeful that continued global vigilance can keep the pace of mutation from speeding up by rapidly responding to outbreaks and hotspots.

Niles Star: Bird Flu Found in North American Birds
We've known for some time now that some birds in North America are carrying the low pathogen H5N1 virus. This differs from the Asian virus which is of the high pathogen variety. The primary concern going forward concerns the risk that both of these pathogens will 'recombine' together and form a potentially virulent form of the virus. If North American birds are already carrying the basics of the virus, it could possibly make the eventual North American spread of the more deadly Asian strain easier.

A number of scientists suspect the low pathogenic H5N1 is a lot more prevalent in North American birds than is currently suspected, it just hasn't been found with such limited testing. Should the bad Asian version make it into North America this would give it an easy path to very quickly run rampant. So what are the chances of the Asian variety coming onshore here? Many experts say that it's not a matter of if, but when.

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April News Roundup

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