Computers Predict Bird Flu Pandemic's Course

Many people are getting worried about the bird flu, and where it will strike first, but now researchers have used computer models to figure out the best way of controlling a pandemic if one occurs. Fast treatment and isolation are of course the initial ideas, which will help slow the spread. The model looks at potential flu pandemics in the United States and Great Britain. My first reaction was "what about Canada!?"

They also say that a vaccine should be stockpiled, even if the vaccine is not very effective. Tight border controls and travel restrictions will only slow, but not stop any spread of an outbreak, no matter how strongly they are enforced.

Some of their conclusions: "Border restrictions and/or internal travel restrictions are unlikely to delay spread by more than two to three weeks unless more than 99 percent effective. School closure during the peak of a pandemic can reduce peak attack rates by up to 40 percent, but has little impact on overall attack rates, whereas case isolation or household quarantine could have a significant impact, if feasible."
But health-care workers will be key to beating back any outbreak, said Dr. David L. Katz, an associate professor of public health and director of the Prevention Research Center at Yale University School of Medicine. "Almost all of the potentially effective flu containment strategies require coordination among first responder agencies, clear messages, rapid and reliable communication, unambiguous chains of command, and efficient distribution of resource materials," he said.

"Absent these fundamentals of public health preparedness, no computer model will help us," Katz added.

I really hope that some good ideas come through on dealing with the pandemic, and I think preparations are probably one of the most important things we can do, as if it is not the bird flu, it could as easily be another viral disease waiting in the wings.

Computers Predict Bird Flu Pandemic's Course [Progressive U]

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Computers Predict Bird Flu Pandemic's Course

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